Terps NCAA Seeding: A Scenario Analysis

I've been following the self-named "Bracketologists" over the last few weeks and I've been pleased to see Maryland steadily moving up their pairings.  However, the best guys in the business at Bracketology 101, had this to say about Maryland's prospects:
The win moved the Terps into a tie with the Blue Devils atop the ACC standings at 12-3, and seed-wise, it will move them to the top of the 5 line in our bracket on Friday. The Terps would be even higher than that if they had more of an OOC resume, but they can still crack the 4 line if they make the ACC final.

Really?  We're a consensus #5 seed if the season ended today (See Lunardi's rankings) and the if Terps continue their winning ways all the way until the ACC Final (3 more wins); they will rise to only a #4 seed?  I find that hard to believe.

The NCAA Selection Committee always rides the hot hand and this year should be no exception.  All of the Terps "bad losses" came in 2009.  I get that we don't have a signature out-of-conference win; but that only matters when your conference record sucks.

Here's how I see it and I'm fairly certain this is how our seeding will play out:

1. Lose to UVa and lose in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament: #7 seed (5% chance of happening)

2. Beat UVa and lose in the Quarterfinals:  #5 seed  (25% chance of happening)

3. Lose to UVa and lose in the Semifinals:  #5 seed (5% chance of happening)

4. Beat UVa and lose in the Semifinals: #4 seed (20% chance of happening)

5. Lose to UVa and lose in the Finals: #4 seed (5% chance of happening)

6. Beat UVa and lose in the Finals: #3 seed (25% chance of happening)

7. Lose to UVa and win ACC Title: #3 seed (5% chance of happening)

8. Beat UVa and win the ACC Title: #2 seed (10% chance of happening)

When the Terps won the ACC Title in 2004; they went from a bubble team needing to beat Wake in the Quarterfinals to get a bid, to a #4 seed in the NCAAs after we beat Duke.  You can't tell me that a similar run now, would only move the Terps to a #4 seed?

I'm by no means a professional, but I'm right, right?
Author: Jeremy | 3/4/2010 9:20:09 PM | Tags: bracketology, ncaa tournament, predictions |