Terps NCAA Seeding: A Scenario Analysis

I've been following the self-named "Bracketologists" over the last few weeks and I've been pleased to see Maryland steadily moving up their pairings.  However, the best guys in the business at Bracketology 101, had this to say about Maryland's prospects:
The win moved the Terps into a tie with the Blue Devils atop the ACC standings at 12-3, and seed-wise, it will move them to the top of the 5 line in our bracket on Friday. The Terps would be even higher than that if they had more of an OOC resume, but they can still crack the 4 line if they make the ACC final.

Really?  We're a consensus #5 seed if the season ended today (See Lunardi's rankings) and the if Terps continue their winning ways all the way until the ACC Final (3 more wins); they will rise to only a #4 seed?  I find that hard to believe.

The NCAA Selection Committee always rides the hot hand and this year should be no exception.  All of the Terps "bad losses" came in 2009.  I get that we don't have a signature out-of-conference win; but that only matters when your conference record sucks.

Here's how I see it and I'm fairly certain this is how our seeding will play out:

1. Lose to UVa and lose in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament: #7 seed (5% chance of happening)

2. Beat UVa and lose in the Quarterfinals:  #5 seed  (25% chance of happening)

3. Lose to UVa and lose in the Semifinals:  #5 seed (5% chance of happening)

4. Beat UVa and lose in the Semifinals: #4 seed (20% chance of happening)

5. Lose to UVa and lose in the Finals: #4 seed (5% chance of happening)

6. Beat UVa and lose in the Finals: #3 seed (25% chance of happening)

7. Lose to UVa and win ACC Title: #3 seed (5% chance of happening)

8. Beat UVa and win the ACC Title: #2 seed (10% chance of happening)

When the Terps won the ACC Title in 2004; they went from a bubble team needing to beat Wake in the Quarterfinals to get a bid, to a #4 seed in the NCAAs after we beat Duke.  You can't tell me that a similar run now, would only move the Terps to a #4 seed?

I'm by no means a professional, but I'm right, right?
Author: Jeremy | 3/4/2010 9:20:09 PM | Tags: bracketology, ncaa tournament, predictions |

THE TERPS ARE BACK!!! (IN FIRST PLACE!)

What a night. The boys did it. It was not pretty. They could have packed it in, but this team is special. Enjoy this Terp Nation! We are the lead story!The title says it all. The Terps are back. Now, for a team that has won at least 19 games for 15+ years, they never went too far down, but the words uttered when Duane Simpkins beat Georgetow [...] Read More »

Author: Gregg | 3/3/2010 9:37:05 PM |

Duke Preview and Game Thread

It's here.  The waiting is almost over.  How long have we waited?  I guess it depends on your perspective.  Only since beating Va Tech on Saturday have the Terps had legitimate dreams about earning a share of the regular season ACC Title.  In that sense, we've only "waited" a few days.  However, if by "waiting" you are referring to the long road ba [...] Read More »

Author: Jeremy | 3/3/2010 3:22:13 PM |

scheyer

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Author: Jeremy | 3/3/2010 10:03:55 AM |

scheyer

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Author: Jeremy | 3/3/2010 9:55:28 AM |

Some Pre-Duke Quotes

As promised (even though I'm a little late), here are some quotes I got from the Duke presser yesterday. It was my first one of these, and it was pretty cool. There were about 25 reporters (including familiar Terp faces like Patrick Stevens, Seth Hoffman, Steve Yanda and Jeff Barker), a bunch of cameras and Chick Hernandez, and Jay Bilas was just c [...] Read More »

Author: Ethan | 3/3/2010 9:43:52 AM | Tags: greivis vasquez, gary williams, duke sucks |

Showing Love For Eric Hayes

On a night-in, night-out basis, the Terps have been able to count on Greivis Vasquez being the best player on the floor. No matter who the opponent has been (except for that Duke game), Greivis has without fail been the best player on the floor.Jordan Williams has also been a consistent wonder. With double-digit rebound games in four of his last fi [...] Read More »

Author: Ethan | 2/28/2010 11:48:37 PM | Tags: basketball, eric hayes |

A Victory For The Ages. Terps Win In 2OT

What a game.  Vasquez turned in the best second half I can remember.  He was 11 for 23 in the second half.  He wilted down the stretch (finishing 4-14); but who can blame him?  The man played 48 minutes.Vasquez made some mistakes (that 3pt with 6 seconds left in the first OT being the biggest); but he also found an open Hayes for what should have b [...] Read More »

Author: Jeremy | 2/27/2010 8:45:09 PM | Tags: big wins, greivis vasquez, virginia tech, polls, duke sucks |

Virginia Tech Game Thread

After the Terps began the 09-10 season with some disappointing losses in Maui; we all re-calibrated our expectations downward. The Terps were a top 25 in November, but as that quickly faded, selection for the NCAA Tournament became the goal. Because of the lackluster non-conference performance; just about anyone with any authority agreed that 10 AC [...] Read More »

Author: Jeremy | 2/27/2010 9:39:45 AM | Tags: virginia tech, game threads |

Never Say Die Terps Win Again!

These are actual text messages I received during the game. To protect the embarrassed, I will not name names!!!"This game was over before it started.""Can you ruin a season with one game?""[We will] lose by 30"I can't say that I knew the boys would come back in this one, after all they have had quite an emotional run in the past few weeks and a ba [...] Read More »

Author: Gregg | 2/24/2010 11:17:27 PM |
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